Do you agree with President Trump's claim that a war with Iran wouldn't last very long because the U.S. has military superiority?
I thought I'd share with you my thoughts regarding a question that was asked on Quora. "Do you agree with President Trumps claim that a war with Iran wouldn't last very long because the U.S. has military superiority?
In my opinion, eliminating Iran as a military threat is largely dependent upon the cooperation of Iraq and Afghanistan, in addition to Russia, not getting involved. Assuming these three things won’t be a problem, I’ll begin to describe a likely scenario.
Vital Iranian infrastructure and military forces would be softened up during another “Shock and Awe” campaign, like the one we saw prior to Iraq, in 2003. Following, Shock & Awe, I anticipate a four-pronged attack (minimum) entering into Iran form Kurdistan, Iraq, Basra, Iraq, Herat, Afghanistan and via ports on the Persian Gulf.
What is left of the Iranian Air Force would be quickly eliminated by technologically superior US fighter jets, engaging Iranian fighters before they even “see” the US warplanes. Iran would never gain air superiority, period. US bombers would finish, and eliminate additional targets. With air superiority, US ground forces would move with virtual impunity, destroying every Iranian force that stood in it’s path and taking every objective they set their sights on. Iranian ground forces would be quickly dispatched.
In my estimation, at least three US Navy battle groups would be deployed to the Persian Gulf. Each battle group consisting of one aircraft carrier, two submarines, a battleship and other supporting war ships. Also consider at least two divisions of US Marines arriving via two Amphibious Readiness Groups. A full fledged amphibious landing could happen anywhere along the lengthy Persian Gulf coastline.
The Iranian Navy will be quickly destroyed. Iranian patrol boats that have been harassing the US Navy won’t be anymore. The Seawiz weapon system in place on every ship has been updated to detect and engage surface threats, like Iranian patrol boats, in addition to taking down incoming missiles.
Not since WWII, has the United States truly employed the full force of it’s military. Expect, that President Trump intends to win this war very quickly, engaging 100% of all FIVE branches of the US military, the Navy, Marines, Army, Air Force and Space Force. Yes, the Space Force. The US will be the first country to attack another from space. Expect, that this will be a game-changer few "experts" have accounted for. Nuclear weapons will not be necessary. Imagine a weapon like a meteor's being released into the atmosphere with exacting precision to take out a target. Space Force.
At the same time the US military is marching over the top of Iran, the CIA will be on the ground talking to and paying all of those impressionable and pissed off college students to begin protesting in favor of the U.S. The stage for this was set many years ago, just as our enemies have done the same thing here.
As “War” is an extension of politics, effectively, the war with Iran has already begun and recently stepped up a notch with increased sanctions. Obviously, these sanctions impact the economy of Iran. In contrast, Iran has a low capacity to impact the economy of the U.S.
Wars cost money, Sun Zu was a proponent of defeating the enemy economy first, then sending in the troops. In the words of Sun Zu, “the victorious army will march in to defeat the already defeated enemy.”
Iran’s attempt to impact the US economy is most likely to come in the form of attacks within the U.S. Terrorist attacks. Iranian agents that aren’t already here, will easily infiltrate the porous US / Mexico border and continue to receive supplies, like cash and C4 explosives. Cash, like the 150 billion in US cash that President Obama sent.
The US power grid is vulnerable to a variety of attacks, not just hacking. Throw a bag of C4 explosives over the fence, that’s how easy that is. The electrical power grid in every city is the softest target and the one I’d expect to be hit first. According to one assessment, “if the Eastern seaboard of the US lost electricity and it could not be restored, 95% of of the population would be dead in the first 3 years.
Despite the anticipated effect of Iranian internal attacks on the US, it would not be enough to secure a victory for Iran. Terrorist tactics would be Iran’s best strategy and only viable option to bring the fight here.
Iran, would also take advantage of far Left sediment in America, using another portion of the 150 billion Obama gave Iran to instigate protests and riots that are intended to sway public opinion against the war. This is how wars are fought.
With an estimated 300 million guns in circulation, no foreign Army short of China, would calculate a ground force attack in the U.S. Every red-blooded American from coast to coast would be taking the fight to anyone dumb enough to invade the US. Additionally, anyone who thinks rednecks-with-guns wouldn’t be effective, should examine the history lessons learned from the Partisans in the region of Yugoslavia, during WWII. The Nazi’s hated the Partisans who were unpredictable and reeked havoc upon the German Army. It would be far worse now for an enemy invading the US, than it was for the German’s, then.
Employing the strategy I picture President Trump using, Iran would be militarily defeated in no more than 6 months. The current Iranian regime and the Republican Guard will not survive, or escape. Because, unlike the Bush Administration, President Trump isn’t going to announce an invasion 3 weeks in advance and fail to secure the borders.
In the aftermath of Iran’s defeat, the US will install new leadership that is friendly to the US and the Democrats back here in the US will continue to bitch and find fault with President Trump. The impressionable youth of Iran will love President Trump more than the youth of America, because we set that stage over there, just as our enemies have turned our young adults here.